Middle Powers Face Strategic Choice Between Dependence and Autonomy in Evolving Indo-Pacific Landscape


Islamabad: Former Ambassador of Pakistan to the United States, China, and the United Nations, and former President of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Sardar Masood Khan, highlighted the strategic dilemmas facing middle powers amidst the shifting dynamics of the Indo-Pacific region. Speaking at a Futures Workshop on Shifting Geopolitics in the Indo-Pacific and Middle Power Autonomy, he discussed the complex interplay of major power rivalries and the pursuit of autonomy by nations such as Pakistan and Australia.



According to President of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Khan traced the origins of the Indo-Pacific concept to Indian naval strategist Gurpreet Khurana in 2007, which was later developed by former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and adopted by the United States under President Donald Trump. This led to the renaming of the United States Pacific Command as the United States Indo-Pacific Command. Khan noted that Pakistan and China continue to favor the term Asia-Pacific, reflecting a more inclusive regional perspective.



Khan observed that while the Indo-Pacific framework addresses emerging maritime and strategic realities, it is also perceived by some countries, especially China, as a containment strategy. He pointed to security arrangements like QUAD and AUKUS and China’s counter-initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Global Security Initiative (GSI).



He emphasized that middle powers are now characterized by strategic flexibility and influence rather than military dominance. Countries such as Australia, Canada, Sweden, Pakistan, Indonesia, Türkiye, and South Africa are expanding their diplomatic and economic influence in response to global shifts.



Khan compared Australia and Pakistan, noting Australia’s alignment with Western alliances alongside its economic ties with China, whereas Pakistan has balanced relations between the United States and China. He cited trade, investment, and maritime collaboration as areas where Pakistan and Australia are finding common ground.



Discussing technological advances, Khan warned of risks such as technological asymmetries deepening dependencies and vulnerabilities but also highlighted opportunities for middle powers to gain strategic advantages through innovation and human capital development.



Concluding, Khan asserted that the emerging international order is neither unipolar nor fully multipolar but fluid. He urged middle powers to diversify partnerships, invest in technology, and practice diplomatic flexibility to construct independent networks rather than remain within great-power-dominated structures.

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