Tobacco Tax Increase in Pakistan Fails to Curb Smoking as Expenditure Rises Despite Higher Costs

Islamabad: Pakistan’s tobacco control measures have achieved significant fiscal outcomes over the past decade, with tobacco taxes rising by approximately 208% during the fiscal year 2022-23. Despite this, data reveals that smokers are spending more on cigarettes, while fewer young people and adults are receiving help to quit. According to Gilani Research Foundation, the inflation-adjusted cost of 20 cigarettes has risen from PKR 120.6 in 2014 to PKR 236.3 in 2024, yet average monthly cigarette spending among smokers increased by PKR 1,589.2 over the same period.

The report, based on the Global Tobacco Surveillance System datasets, highlights several paradoxes in Pakistan’s tobacco landscape. Public support for increasing tobacco taxes is high, with 81.1% of adults favoring further hikes. However, the expected reduction in consumption due to price increases has not materialized, as remaining smokers continue to spend more. Additionally, fewer adults noticed health warnings on cigarette packages in 2024 than in 2014, despite enlarged warning sizes.

The data also indicates a decline in advertising exposure, yet a persistent normalization of tobacco use in media, affecting young people disproportionately. While the proportion of students noticing tobacco use in media remains unchanged, the reach of anti-tobacco messages has slightly decreased. Furthermore, the gap between the desire to quit smoking and the support available remains significant. In 2024, only 24.1% of adult smokers made a quit attempt, despite nearly half being advised to quit by healthcare providers.

For young smokers aged 13-15, the situation is more acute. Although the number trying to quit has increased, the availability of professional cessation support has decreased, with only 15.9% having received help in 2022, down from 27.0% in 2013. This highlights a critical need for improved cessation support infrastructure to bridge the gap between motivation and successful quitting.

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