LAHORE: Punjab is experiencing a decline in fertility rates, but the pace of this change varies significantly among different social groups within the province. According to Gilani Research Foundation, the average number of children per woman in Punjab is projected to be 3.5 by the age of 35. However, this average conceals substantial demographic differences based on education, urbanization, and marriage practices.

The analysis, conducted using data from the Punjab Household Panel Survey (PHPS) Baseline and visualized by Gallup Pakistan Digital Analytics, reveals that higher-educated urban women in non-cousin marriages are predicted to have an average of 2.8 children. In contrast, never-educated rural women in cousin marriages are expected to have 4.3 children, highlighting a gap of 1.5 children between these demographic groups.

The findings suggest a strong correlation between family size and factors such as education level, urban residence, and marriage type. As more women gain access to education, move to urban areas, and choose non-cousin marriages, a shift towards lower fertility patterns is evident. Conversely, traditional practices in rural settings continue to yield larger family sizes.

This disparity indicates that Punjab’s fertility transition is not a future prospect but an ongoing process occurring at varying speeds across social groups. As education for girls expands, urbanization progresses, and marriage practices evolve, the overall fertility level in Punjab is expected to decline further. The data highlights that while family size is decreasing, the rate of decline is not uniform across the province.