Following is the full text of United Nations World Food Programme,
Background
The war in Ukraine has major implications for food security and diets across the world, given both countries’ key roles in global food markets and Russia’s prominence in global energy trade. The resulting global food and economic crisis risks heightening inequalities and vulnerabilities in a world still confronting the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this context, food system resilience is crucial to maintain or adapt its functions in the face of shocks, and ultimately for system sustainability. Through a series of key indicators, this brief describes how the food system has been affected by this ongoing crisis and provides an overview of its resilience and potential opportunities for building resilience further.
Assessing food system resilience
Food system resilience is defined as “the ability of different individual and institutional food system actors to maintain, protect, or quickly recover the key functions of that system despite the impacts of disturbances”1. Drawing from the conceptual framework established by the Food Systems Countdown Initiative2, food system resilience was measured through 4 main indicator domains. Findings presented in this section were derived from national level data, and would therefore not enable the detection of likely food system subnational variabilities.
HOW HAS PAKISTAN BEEN EXPOSED TO SHOCKS SINCE 2020?
In the last 3 years, Pakistan has faced shocks that have affected the food system and its resilience in various ways. Like the rest of the world, Pakistan was hit by the COVID-19 pandemic in March
2020. To minimize COVID-19 spread, the government rapidly implemented strict containment strategies such as restrictions of movements and public gatherings among others, which can impact various domains of the food system (e.g., supply chain, consumer environment, consumer behaviors). Following the same timeline, the country also adopted supportive economic policies as part of their COVID-19 relief package, such as income support for the population (e.g., cash assistance to daily wage workers and low-income families) (Figure 1).
The Pakistani currency (Pakistani Rupee, PKR) exchange rate relative to the US dollar (USD) has been relatively stable from 2013 to 2017 (between 102 and 106 PKR per USD) but underwent a depreciation in 2018-19 (from 106 in 2017 to 150 PKR per USD in 2019). During the crisis period, the PKR depreciation persisted in 2020, levelled off in 2021, and then increase sharply by 26% in 2022 to reach 205 PKR per USD, the highest level observed within the reporting period (Figure 2). The weakening of PKR in 2022 may have been a result from the devastating floods the country experienced that year, domestic political challenges, and the volatility in global financial markets resulting from the war in Ukraine.
Besides shocks related to the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, Pakistan is also prone to numerous natural hazards, such as floods, landslides, earthquakes, and droughts. This is illustrated by the major floods that occurred in 2010 and 2022, which primarily contributed to the 10% and 14% of the Pakistani population that were affected by natural disasters these years (Figure 3). Due to a combination of political, geographic, and social factors, Pakistan is recognized as particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts and ranked 150th out of 185 countries in the 2021 ND-GAIN Index3. As mentioned in a 2018 report, weather patterns get more erratic and frequency and/or intensity of extreme events are rising with climate change, potentially exacerbating vulnerabilities and impact on people food security, especially poor rural households which depend on small-scale, rainfed agriculture4.
HOW HAVE RESILIENCE CAPACITIES AND AGRO- AND FOOD-DIVERSITY BEEN AFFECTED?
According to country-level statistics, food system resilience capacities seem to have stood up reasonably well to the successive shocks (Table 1).
With respect to domestic production, after a marked decline in 2018, the trend in crop production has been steadily increasing from 2019 to 2021 (from 96 to 117; 2014-2016=base 100). Livestock production also seems not to have been affected by the crisis, as the observed trend in 2020-21 has been similar to the pre-crisis period and continued to increase, to reach 127 in 2021 (2014-2016=base 100) (Figure 4). However, the rising trend in crop production shown in our data may not indicate that, in 2022, wheat production was reported to be lower than what the Pakistan government had expected, with signs of improvement in 2023, although it still fell below Pakistan’s essential requirements.
With regards to food imports, overall volumes of NCD5-protect and NCD-risk food groups imported have been relatively low (between 11.8-20.6, and 0.2-13.1 Kg per capital for NCD- protect and NCD-risk food respectively). The trends for both NCD-protect and NCD-risk food groups have been stable with minimal variations throughout the pre-crisis period. During the crisis period, volumes of NCD-risk food imported marginally increased but remained extremely low (3.2 Kg per capita in 2021) while volumes of NCD-protect food rose a little more markedly (from 15.2 to 20.6 Kg per capita) – mainly due to legumes and other vegetables. Volumes of other food imports were stable from 2010 to 2015, sharply declined up to 2018 (to reach almost 0 Kg per capita) and then markedly rebounded in 2019 to stabilize the 2 next years (Figures 5, 6).
Mobile cellular subscriptions – a proxy of country’s infrastructure level and therefore an important indicator for resilience – continued to rise in 2020 and 2021, following the same trend as pre-crisis, and stagnated in 2022.
While social capital index – which reflects the strength of personal and social relationships, institutional trust, social norms, and civic participation in a country –progressed between 2016 and 2020 (from 42 to 51), it slightly declined (by 4 points) the following two years. A moderate increase was observed in 2022.
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Table 1: Evolution of indicators of `resilience capacities and agro- and food-diversity’ domain from pre-crisis to crisis period,
Pakistan
Resilience sub- Data Actual
domain Indicator Unit period Desirable direction Trend analysis
covered direction during
crisis*
Crop production Overall, slight upward trend pre-
index (2014- crisis but decline in 2018. Rebound
2016=100) Index 2010-2021 in 2019 and steep increase during
crisis period.
Food produced Livestock Steady growth since 2014, no
domestically production index Index 2010-2021 change in trend during crisis period.
(2014-2016=100)
Fertilizer Kg /ha or Upward trend from 2013 to 2017,
consumption of arable 2010-2020 stagnation until 2019, and slight
land increase in 2020.
Food import Kg /capita 2010-2021 Stable trend from 2015 to 2019,
NCD-protect slight increase in 2020-21.
Imported food Food import Kg /capita 2010-2021 Stable trend pre-crisis, marginal
NCD-risk increase during crisis period
Mobile cellular Number / Steady increasing trend pre-crisis
Infrastructure subscription 100 people 2010-2022 (except 2015), continued during
crisis period. Stagnation in 2022.
Social capital Social capital index Index 2010-2023 Slight increasing trend from 2016
to 2020, small decline in 2021-22
and light progress in 2023.
* Average crisis period compared to pre-crisis average (2018-2019 depending on data availability)
Desirable direction: denotes a higher value is more desirable, denotes a lower value is more desirable. Actual direction : a blue arrow denotes no substantial changes and stable value, a green arrow
(up/down) denotes a direction similar to the desirable one, a light green arrow (diagonal up/down) denotes a direction similar to the desirable one but less pronounced, a red arrow (up/down) denotes an
opposite direction to the desirable one, an orange arrow (diagonal up/down) denotes an opposite direction to the desirable one but less pronounced
Kg= kilograms; ha= hectare
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RESILIENCE RESPONSES / STRATEGIES AND LONGER-TERM RESILIENCE OUTCOMES
Based on the analysis of national level data, while the resilience capacities seem to have endured the current crisis relatively robustly, the same cannot be said about food system resilience outcomes. On the contrary, the crisis period was characterized by a deterioration in several resilience outcomes indicators (Table 2).
With respect to resilience responses, surprisingly there was a shift in trends regarding livelihood coping strategies at the start of the crisis (2020), compared to 2019: the use of drastic coping mechanisms strongly declined (from 26% to 10% (crisis) and 35% to 12% (emergency)) whereas the adoption of stress coping strategies or not at all substantially increased (from 17% to 29% (stress) and 22% to 50% (none)). However, the two next years (2021; 2022) were marked by a slight decline of the use of stress and emergency mechanisms, a sharp fall in those not using any coping strategies (-26%), and a high rise of the use of crisis strategies (+33%) (Figure 8). Similarly, when looking at the reduced coping strategy index (rCSI) the proportion of households in the “medium coping” and “high coping” categories decreased while those in the “low coping” category sharply increased in 2020 compared to 2019 (Figure 9). In 2021-22, the trends reversed and those in “low coping” halved and went back to 2019 level, those in “medium coping” almost doubled to reach 56% (10 points higher than 2019), while those in “emergency coping” category slightly increased but remained below the 2019 level. This demonstrates an erosion of households’ capacity to cope and withstand shocks. However, these results – particularly those related to 2020 – must be interpreted with caution, as data were collected only for rural populations from different provinces across years (only Khyber- Pakhtunkhwa province was included in 2020 whereas Sindh and Balochistan provinces were included for the other years).
The surprising trend in LCS could be attributed to the nature of the data source, which involves real-time monitoring. Given that most of Pakistan’s population resides near the poverty line, when people receive assistance during emergencies, those on the borderline can potentially shift to a more stable position. After the 2022 floods, WFP, the Pakistani Government and other humanitarian actors, provided cash transfers to 3.4 million people for food purchases, which likely reduced the reliance on negative coping strategies among households in the short term. However, in the long term, a reduction in negative coping strategies occurs when people enhance or diversify their sources of livelihood and when communities become more resilient. As a result, it’s possible that the data may have primarily captured the short-term impact on LCS, while long-term effects might take more time to manifest.
Before the crisis, Pakistan experienced a consistent decline in food price inflation, with the rate decreasing from 16.9% in 2010 to 2.2% in 2018. However, inflation increased to 10.6% in 2019, and this marked upward trend continued in 2020 (15.5%) before falling back in 2021 – but still remaining high, at the 2019 level. In 2022, the food price inflation soared to reach its highest level (24.7%) within the period considered (Figure 10). Specifically, food inflation in December 2022 increased by 35.50% compared to December 2021. The peak occurred in May 2023 at 48.65%8. One contributing factor may be the strong depreciation of the Pakistani currency observed during the same period (Figure 2). Nevertheless, the annual data might not capture monthly variations and the possibility of even higher food price inflation that the country may have experienced after the floods in July 2022. The volatility in food prices is also reflected in the food price anomalies (IFPA) for wheat. While price growth for wheat has been normal pre-crisis, it sustained a substantial increase in 2020 (IFPA=1), returned to normal in 2021, but underwent another moderate growth in 2022 (IFPA=0.6 – Figure 11). The abnormally high wheat prices observed this year may result from the dramatic drop in grain exports following the war in Ukraine, as both countries are the leading wheat exporter for Pakistan. However, the impact of government policies, specifically subsidies and pricing strategies, might also influence wheat prices.
With respect to food supply variability, which is an indicator of food availability, the pre-crisis period has seen a steady deterioration between 2013 and 2018 with food supply variability going up (from 9 to 26 kcal/capita/day), while it dropped to 15 kcal/capita/day in 2019. Food supply variability rose again to reach 23 kcal/capita/day in 2020 and stabilized in 2021 (Figure 12).
The weakened food system resilience, as evidenced by a surge in food price and a decline in food availability, may have adversely impacted the purchasing power and to access food for the Pakistani population. Even before the crisis, a significant proportion of the population could not afford a healthy diet, and this problem worsened in 2020, reaching its peak at 83.5% during the reporting period. It marginally declined in 2021 (Figure 13). In addition, prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity has been dramatically progressing since 2018, going from 14.2% to 42.3% in 2021 (Figure 14). However, lack of data for the subsequent years does not enable to assess further the effect of the on-going crisis and resulting food system challenges on the Pakistani population’s food security.
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Table 2: Evolution of indicators of `resilience responses / strategies’ and `longer-term resilience outcomes’ domains from
pre-crisis to crisis period, Pakistan
Resilience Data Actual
sub-domain Indicator Unit period Desirable direction
covered direction during Trend analysis
crisis*
In 2020, marked decrease of
the use of crisis and emergency
Livelihood coping strategies while opposite trend for
strategy (LCS): N N the use of stress strategies or not
– None (N) S using any strategies (“none”).
– Stress (S) C In 2021 and 2022, sharp decline
– Crisis (C) % population 2019-2022 E of “none” while strong increase of
– Emergency (E) S, C, E crisis strategies. Less variations in
Coping the use of stress and emergency
strategies strategies.
Reduced Coping In 2020, decline of medium and
Strategy Index (rCSI): L N high rCSI while strong increase in lowrSCI.
– Low (L) Index 2018-2021 M
– Medium (M) H In 2021-2022, decline of low rCSI
– High (H) while marked increase in medium
M,H rCSI and slight rise in high rCSI.
Food price annual General downward trend until
inflation % 2010-2022 2018, then marked rise in 2019-20.
Food price Decline in 2021 while strong rise
volatility in 2022.
Food Price Anomalies Normal price growth pre-crisis.
(IFPA), wheat Index 2015-2022 High price growth in 2020, return
to normal in 2021, but moderately
high growth in 2022.
Food supply Steady increase from 2013 up
variability Food supply variability Kcal / capita 2010-2021 to 2018. Sharp decline in 2019.
/ day During crisis period, marked
increase in 2020 and no significant
change in 2021.
% population Steady and marked upward trend
experiencing moderate % population 2015-2021 from 2018 to 2021.
or severe food
insecurity
Food security
% population who Upward trend from 2018 to 2020,
cannot afford a healthy % population 2017-2021 and marginal decline in 2021.
diet
* Average crisis period compared to pre-crisis average (2018-2019 depending on data availability)
Desirable direction: denotes a higher value is more desirable, denotes a lower value is more desirable. Actual direction : a blue arrow denotes no substantial changes and stable value, a green arrow
(up/down) denotes a direction similar to the desirable one, a light green arrow (diagonal up/down) denotes a direction similar to the desirable one but less pronounced, a red arrow (up/down) denotes an
opposite direction to the desirable one, an orange arrow (diagonal up/down) denotes an opposite direction to the desirable one but less pronounced
IFPA = indicator of food price anomalies; Kcal= kilocalories
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CONTEXTUAL SPECIFICITIES AND VULNERABILITIES
Pakistan is significantly affected by climate-related disasters. In particular, drought emergencies occurring over several years have led to severe water shortages. These conditions have significant implications for agriculture, as the demand for water often exceeds its availability, leading to a reduction in irrigated land and crop production. In some areas of the country, even the river flow is insufficient to meet irrigation needs. Simultaneously, Pakistan faces devastating floods, which contribute to an increased portion of the population experiencing food insecurity. Floods not only disrupt the irrigation networks but also damage roads leading to markets, schools, and hospitals. WFP is working to restore and improve the irrigation systems that were disrupted by the 2022 floods and rehabilitate access roads for the affected communities.
Pakistan also faces challenges with staple crops. For example, the price of wheat, Pakistan’s primary staple food, remains highly unstable. Notably, there is a lack of a clear and consistent policy or strategy concerning wheat within the country. The governmental provides incentives for wheat production to farmers, but these initiatives can fluctuate from year to year, often in response to monthly market price variations. Furthermore, there is a lack of oversight regarding the export of wheat and flour to neighbouring countries, as these activities are often under the influence of non- state actors or informal networks in the region. This contributes to rising prices within Pakistan.
Another critical issue is the limited food storage capacity, both at the household and governmental levels. In 2022, the government stored surplus wheat stocks in high-risk areas which were ultimately affected by climate-related disasters, resulting in the surplus of wheat being spoiled. These climate shocks also contributed to the spoilage of household supplies. This situation underscores the need to enhance storage capacities for staple food at both the community and regional levels.
Additionally, it is relevant to acknowledge the regional disparities within Pakistan. The majority of wheat production is concentrated in Punjab, while other provinces rely on wheat from Punjab. This discrepancy underscores the absence of clear policies or strategies governing the equitable distribution of wheat to meet the needs of these provinces
Impact on food system: further results
In line with food price inflation (Figure 10), food prices have risen in a steep curve since the start of the crisis. In 2023, the mean food prices at national level for the food commodities had almost tripled compared to the baseline (average 2017-2018). The trend is similar across the 4 provinces but varies across food items: prices of oil (cooking) and wheat flour have sustained the largest mark up (more than 200% baseline price) while the prices rise of rice, pulses, and eggs have been lower, but nonetheless considerable (around 150% baseline price) (Figures 15, 16).
Surprisingly, food price inflation seems not to have translated into higher food expenditure (out of total spending), which remained between 35% and 40% during the crisis, although households devoting more than 75% of their overall budget increased by around 30% in 2020 – which indicates an exacerbation of households’ economic vulnerability – and fell back to 2019 level the next two years (Figure 17 and 18). Furthermore, the downward trend of cost of living occurring pre-crisis has suffered a slowdown in 2020-21 before resuming in 2022 (Figure 19). Households’ income however seems not to have been affected to the same extent, but national averages may conceal disparities within the country or among specific population groups, for example the most vulnerable (Figure 20).
Likewise, the current crisis and rise in prices seem not to have impacted volumes of food sales, which followed similar trends to the pre-crisis period: volumes of NCD-risk food sales remained stable and at a low level (between 21 and 25 Kg per capita in 2020-2022) while volumes of NCD-protect food sales continued to rise steadily (from 169 in 2019 to 193 Kg per capita in 2022), following the projected trend (Figure 21). Other vegetables and other fruits represent the majority of NCD-protect food sales, while SSB dominates NCD-risk food sales (Figure 22).
With regard to households’ food consumption, proportion with acceptable food consumption score (FCS) increased by almost 50% in 2020 (from 20% in 2019 to 69% in 2020) and then fell back to around 40% in 2021-22, while those with border FCS declined by 22% between 2019 and 2022 (from 54% to 32%) and proportion with poor FCS has been halved in 2020-21 but rebounded in 2022 to reach 2019 level (27%). However, these findings should be interpreted with caution, as the data collection in 2020 covered a single and different province (Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa) than the other years, where Balochistan and Sindh were also included. This might partially explain the unexpected shift observed in 2020 (Figure 23).
Our survey in Pakistan focused on the challenges faced by urban food vendors during the crisis in Islamadad and Peshawar. It revealed varying impacts on urban food vendors, with disruptions caused by reduced customer traffic, store closures, and lockdowns. These disruptions have had a significant economic impact on these businesses, resulting in varying income reductions. Despite the challenges, operational cost reductions were limited, but vendors adapted by diversifying products, introducing new items, sharing workforces, and using new distribution methods.
It is important to acknowledge that although the capital cities were chosen for their diverse populations and economic significance, these results need to be interpreted with caution as they might not be representative of all food vendors in the country.
OPPORTUNITIES FOR BUILDING FOOD SYSTEM RESILIENCE
PRICE STABILIZATION MECHANISMS
Implement and enforce consistent pricing and market policies for staple crops, such as wheat. This would reduce price volatility and ensure food affordability for the population, especially during times of crisis.
EXPORT CONTROL MEASURES
Regulate and monitor the export of key food commodities, like wheat and flour, to prevent supply shortages domestically. This can help maintain food availability and stability within Pakistan.
ENHANCED STORAGE FACILITIES
Invest in improving storage capacities at both household and governmental levels. Adequate storage will help safeguard food supplies during natural disasters and crises, reducing food losses and ensuring long-term food security.
REGIONAL EQUITABILITY
Develop policies to distribute food commodities more equitably among provinces. Focusing on regions that are highly dependent on food imports can help ensure that everyone has access to essential food items.
SOCIAL SAFETY NETS
Strengthen social safety nets and income support programs, especially for low-income and vulnerable populations. These programs can provide a buffer during economic downturns and help ensure that people can afford a healthy diet.
COMMUNITY-BASED DISASTER PREPAREDNESS
Foster community-based disaster preparedness and resilience- building programs. These initiatives can help communities respond more effectively to natural hazards and protect their food systems.
CLIMATE-RESILIENT AGRICULTURE
Promote climate-resilient agricultural practices, such as drought- resistant crop varieties and water-saving techniques, to mitigate the impact of climate change on food production. Prioritize the rehabilitation and maintenance of irrigation systems to mitigate the impact of flooding and ensure a consistent water supply for agriculture.
Notes on methodology
DATA SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY
For assessing the impact of food and economic crises on diets among vulnerable groups across urban and rural areas in selected countries, we employed a multi-faceted methodology. Primary Data Collection: We conducted food vendor surveys in various cities to understand how the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict affected businesses in the food sector. Secondary Data Analysis: We analyzed data from diverse sources, including food trade data, the Euromonitor International market sales database, and Cost of Diet data from the Fill the Nutrient Gap (FNG) initiative by WFP RBB. This analysis helped us examine changes in food imports, assess sales of both healthy and unhealthy food items, and study the affordability of diets, particularly for vulnerable groups. Modeling: We utilized economic shocks models to explore how change in food imports and sales affect food security and diets. We used techniques like Principal Component Analysis, Canonical Correlation Analysis, t-SNE, and Multivariate Random Forest to understand how changes in the food environment, income, and inflation influence food security.
To evaluate food system resilience, we selected specific indicator domains, curating data from various sources to understand changes over time and trends. We assessed food system resilience through various indicators, covering economic stability, natural disaster impact, COVID-19 stringency, domestic food production, imported food percentages, infrastructure, social capital, coping strategies, food price volatility, food supply stability, and food security. These indicators provided a comprehensive perspective on resilience across economic, environmental, and social dimensions. We also conducted semi-structured interviews with experts from WFP country offices to gather qualitative insights and identify opportunities to enhance resilience. Ethical standards were upheld throughout the study, with participants providing consent, data privacy and confidentiality being respected. Our research adhered to the TRUST code, a global code of conduct for equitable research partnerships.
The research was conducted between January 2023 and November 2023.
LIMITATIONS
For some indicators, there was limited data available, which restrained the ability to conduct further analyses on specific food system areas or to assess the impact of the current crisis. For example, several indicators for food system resilience only had data available up to 2020 or 2021 (e.g., domestic production, fertilizer consumption, food import, food supply variability), therefore the effect of the war in Ukraine – which started in February 2022 – could not captured.
For indicators related to coping strategies, food expenditure share by category, and food consumption score, data collection did not cover the 4 provinces (Punjab was excluded), therefore results presented might not be representative of the entire country. Moreover, timing of data collection and provinces targeted varied across years: Sindh and Balochistan were included in 2019, only Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa was included in 2020, and data was collected for those 3 provinces in October 2021 and 2022. This may affect the interpretability of the findings presented.
With respect to most indicators, the analysis was conducted at the level of the country, potentially masking subnational variabilities (e.g., across different regions, or across urban/rural areas) and/or disparities among specific groups (e.g., most vulnerable groups). Further research would be warranted to shed light on these variations.
DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS
Crisis period: the on-going food and economic crisis results from a combination of two main shocks: the COVID-19 pandemic (from March 2020) and the Ukraine and Russia war (from February 2022).
Food system: “all the elements (environment, people, inputs, processes, infrastructures, institutions, etc.) and activities that relate to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food, and the output of these activities, including socio-economic and environmental outcomes” (HLPE, 2017).
INDICATOR DEFINITIONS
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Indicator Indicator Definition Data source
domain
Exchange rate Annual exchange rates. Local currency units per US dollar. FAOSTAT
Natural disasters include biological (animal accident, epidemic, insect infestation), climatological (drought, glacial EM-DAT
lake outburst, wildfire), geophysical (earthquake, mass movement – dry, volcanic activity), hydrological (flood,
Ratio of landslide, wave action), and meteorological disasters (storm, extreme temperature, fog).
affected
people to Total people affected include the total of injured (including hospitalization), affected (number of houses damaged
the total multiplied by the family size), and homeless people (number of houses destroyed multiplied by the family size).
population
Exposure to Note: proportion of the total population may be an overestimation, as people may have be counted more than
shocks once for a given year, if they have been affected by different natural disasters throughout that year
COVID-19 Composite indicator calculated by using nine scaled indicators, including eight containment and closure policy OxCGRT
Stringency indicators (school closing, workplace closing, cancel public events, restrictions on gatherings, close public transport,
Index stay at home requirements, restrictions on internal movement, and international travel controls) and one indicators
of public information campaigns, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest).
COVID-19 Composite measure based on four indicators: direct transfers to people not working due to the pandemic; debt OxCGRT
Economic relief for households; fiscal spending to stimulate the economy; and international support, rescaled to a value
Support Index from 0 to 100 (100 = highest).
Crop Agricultural production for each year relative to the base period 2014-2016. It includes all crops except fodder World Bank
production crops. Regional and income group aggregates for the FAO’s production indexes are calculated from the underlying
index (2014- values in international dollars, normalized to the base period 2014-2016.
2016 = 100)
National crop Quantity of plant nutrients used per unit of arable land. Fertilizer products cover nitrogenous, potash, and phosphate WFPb
production fertilizers (including ground rock phosphate). Traditional nutrients–animal and plant manures–are not included.
(gross harvest
Fertilizer Includes meat and milk from all sources, dairy products such as cheese, and eggs, honey, raw silk, wool, and hides World Bank
consumption and skins. It shows the relative level of the aggregate volume of agricultural production for each year in comparison
with the base period 2014-2016.
Livestock Includes meat and milk from all sources, dairy products such as cheese, and eggs, honey, raw silk, wool, and hides World Bank
production and skins. It shows the relative level of the aggregate volume of agricultural production for each year in comparison
index (2014- with the base period 2014-2016.
2016 = 100)
Resilience This indicator was created using the data available in the United Nation’s Comtrade database. Annual food UN Comtrade
capacities import data was downloaded with the Harmonized System (HS) Codes 6-digits that is a standardized numerical
and agro-food method of classifying traded products. These commodity groups were re-categorized into standard Diet Quality
diversity Questionnaire (DQQ) food groups. Classification as NCD-risk and NCD-protect food groups was done based on
Food import the Global Dietary Recommendations (GRD) guideline.
NCD-protect,
NCD-risk food NCD-Protect: foods protective against noncommunicable diseases (whole grains; legumes/pulses; vitamin A-rich
groups orange vegetables; dark green leafy vegetables; other vegetables; vitamin A-rich fruits; citrus; other fruits; nuts
and seeds). NCD-Risk: foods related to noncommunicable diseases (baked/grain-based sweets; other sweets;
processed meat; unprocessed red meat – ruminant; unprocessed red -non ruminant; packaged ultra-processed
salty snacks; instant noodles; sugar-sweetened beverages).
Mobile cellular telephone subscriptions are subscriptions to a public mobile telephone service that provide World Bank
access to the PSTN using cellular technology. The indicator includes (and is split into) the number of postpaid
Mobile cellular subscriptions, and the number of active prepaid accounts (i.e. that have been used during the last three months).
subscription The indicator applies to all mobile cellular subscriptions that offer voice communications. It excludes subscriptions
via data cards or USB modems, subscriptions to public mobile data services, private trunked mobile radio, telepoint,
radio paging and telemetry services.
Social capital A composite index based on a subset of indicators from the Social Capital pillar of the Legatum Prosperity Index, Legatum
index which assesses social cohesion and engagement, community and family networks, and political participation and Institute/
institutional trust. The index is scaled to a value that ranges from 0 (low) to 100 (high). FSCI
Reduced Measure of the frequency and severity of household behaviors when faced with shortages of food or financial WFPb
Coping resources to buy food. It is calculated using five standard food consumption-based strategies and severity weighting,
Strategy Index a higher score indicates more frequent and/or extreme negative coping strategies.
Resilience (rCSI)
responses and Livelihood Indicator used to understand households’ medium and longer-term coping capacity in response to lack of food WFPb
strategies coping or lack of money to buy food and their ability to overcome challenges in the future. The indicator is derived from
strategy a series of questions regarding the households’ experiences with livelihood stress and asset depletion to cope
Food security with food shortages.
Food price Inflation is measured in terms of the annual growth rate and in index, 2015 base year. FAOSTAT
inflationa
Food Price Identifies market prices that are abnormally high. The IFPA relies on a weighted compound growth rate that FAOSTAT
Anomalies accounts for both within year and across year price growth. The indicator directly evaluates growth in prices over
(IFPA), by type a particular month over many years, taking into account seasonality in agricultural markets and inflation, allowing
of product to answer the question of whether or not a change in price is abnormal for any particular period.
(Rice)
Food Price FAOSTAT
Anomalies
(IFPA), by type
of product
(Wheat)
Longer-term This indicator uses the data on dietary energy supply from the Food Balance Sheet to measure annual fluctuations in FAOSTAT
resilience Food supply the per capita food supply (kcal), represented as the standard deviation over the previous five years per capita food
outcomes variabilitya supply. Food supply variability results from a combination of instability and responses in production, trade, consumption,
and storage, in addition to changes in government policies such as trade restrictions, taxes and subsidies, stockholding,
and public distribution.
The prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity is an estimate of the percentage of people in the population FAOSTAT
% population who live in households classified as moderately or severely food insecure. The assessment is conducted using
experiencing data collected with the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) or a compatible experience-based food security
moderate or measurement questionnaire. A household is classified as moderately or severely food insecure when at least
severe food one adult in the household has reported to have been exposed, at times during the year, to low quality diets and
insecurity might have been forced to also reduce the quantity of food they would normally eat because of a lack of money
or other resources.
% population Proportion of the population whose food budget is below the cost of a healthy diet. The food budget is defined FAOSTAT
who cannot as 52% of household income, based on the average share of income that households in low-income countries
afford a spend on food. Income data are provided by the World Bank’s Poverty and Inequality Platform. A value of zero
healthy dieta indicates a null or a small number rounded down at the current precision level.
Food prices Changes in The changes in food prices was calculated for 5 food items (1. eggs; 2. oil (cooking); 3. rice (basmati broken and Economic:
and cost of food prices coarse); 4. Wheat flour; 5. Beans (mash). Prices-
diet Dataviz WFP
VAMb
Food Per capita Indicator used to measure households’ economic vulnerability. It determines the economic vulnerability without WFP
expenditure, food the need of having a reference to a poverty line or minimum expenditure basket. The higher the share of FSOMb
income and expenditure households’ consumption expenditures on food – out of the total consumption expenditure – the more vulnerable
food sales share the households are to food insecurity.
Food Cost of Living Index by Income (internationally comparable) is a price index that measures relative cost of living Euromonitor
expenditure, Cost of living over time in a chosen income decile. Cost of Living Index is a weighted average of Index of Consumer Prices by
income and category and consumer expenditure by income deciles, adjusted to Price Level Index.
food sales
Food Income Disposable income is gross income less social security contributions and income taxes. WFPb
expenditure,
income and
food sales
This indicator was created using the data in Euromonitor International database https://www.euromonitor. WFPb
Food com/. Market research data on food sales was downloaded and food groups were categorized into standard
expenditure, Diet Quality Questionnaire (DQQ) food groups. Classification as NCD-risk and NCD-protect food groups was
income and Food sale done based on the Global Dietary Recommendations (GRD) guideline. NCD-Protect: foods protective against
food sales (volume per noncommunicable diseases (whole grains; legumes/pulses; vitamin A-rich orange vegetables; dark green lea
capita) vegetables; other vegetables; vitamin A-rich fruits; citrus; other fruits; nuts and seeds). NCD-Risk: foods related
to noncommunicable diseases (baked/grain-based sweets; other sweets; processed meat; unprocessed red
meat – ruminant; unprocessed red -non ruminant; packaged ultra-processed salty snacks; instant noodles;
sugar-sweetened beverages).
Food This indicator is associated with household food access, and is therefore a proxy for household food security. The WFPb
Food security consumption FCS is used to classify households into three groups: poor, borderline or acceptable food consumption. These food
and diets score consumption groups aggregate households with similar dietary patterns – in terms of frequency of consumption
and diversity – and access to food.
!2
Acknowledgments
This document was prepared by Dikoda in consultation and coordination with WFP regional bureau Bangkok and the Pakistan WFP country office. We thank Iftikhar Abbas, Jintana Kawasaki, Almudena Serrano, Anusara Singhkumarwong and others from the WFP team for their technical review and input to this document. This brief was developed by the Dikoda team: Caroline Favas, Elizabeth Whelan, Chiara Cresta, Didier Leibovici, Damith Chandrasenage, Erica Kunkio, Kristie Smith, and Sophie Goudet.
The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of WFP or Dikoda. All reasonable precautions have been taken by WFP and Dikoda to verify the information contained in this publication. However, the published material is being distributed without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. The responsibility for the interpretation and use of the material lies with the reader. In no event shall WFP or Dikoda be liable for damages arising from its use.
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