ISLAMABAD: The prevalence of child marriage in Pakistan has experienced a significant decline over the past generation, according to a recent analysis. The rate of women married before the age of 18 has fallen from 37% to 22%, primarily due to increased educational attainment and a reduction in marriage rates within each educational level.

According to Gallup Pakistan Digital Analytics, which conducted the study using data from the Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS) 2017-18, the analysis reviewed the marital status of women aged 20-49 across three birth cohorts. The findings showed a marked decrease in child marriage rates from 36.5% among women born between 1968-77 to 21.7% among those born between 1988-97.

The study credits half of the 14.7 percentage point decline to more girls pursuing higher levels of education. The proportion of women achieving complete secondary education or more rose significantly from 16.6% to 36.5%. The remaining decrease was seen within the same education levels, suggesting that even among women with similar educational backgrounds, the incidence of child marriage is decreasing.

Provincial data showed varied results, with Punjab witnessing a decline from 34% to 17%, Sindh from 40% to 27%, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa from 40% to 30%, and Balochistan from 42% to 29%. Despite these improvements, disparities remain, particularly among women with lower educational attainment, where 34% of the youngest cohort with no education to primary level were married before 18 compared to just 2.5% of those with higher education.

The analysis also notes that while education and early marriage influence each other, the causality cannot be definitively established. Furthermore, age at marriage is self-reported, and there may be inaccuracies in recollections from older cohorts, alongside data limitations due to the exclusion of women aged 15-19 whose potential exposure to early marriage is incomplete.

The findings highlight the ongoing challenges and progress in addressing child marriage within Pakistan, emphasizing the role of education as a crucial factor in this societal change.